BN Favoured In Mahkota By-Election, But Majority At Stake - Analysts

KLUANG, Sept 26 (Bernama) -- On paper, Barisan Nasional’s (BN) candidate Syed Hussien Syed Abdullah appears to have a strong chance of winning the Mahkota by-election.

However, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s (UTM) Perdana Centre Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali emphasised that the real question is whether BN can maintain or even exceed its previous majority of 5,166 votes.

This uncertainty stems from factors such as the large number of Mahkota voters residing outside the constituency, and potential voter discontent due to tensions within the Unity Government.

“Previously, BN contested alone, but after joining forces with Pakatan Harapan (PH), expectations are that the majority will grow. However, past issues could deter some voters, posing a challenge.

"Additionally, Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) rising support in recent state elections could reduce BN’s majority,” Mazlan told Bernama today.

During the first week of campaigning, Mazlan observed BN’s dominant presence, aided by PH as a partner in the Unity Government. Both parties actively engaged voters through targeted group interactions.

He attributed BN’s strength to its solid influence in Johor, with PH's Wong Shu Qi representing the Kluang parliamentary seat and DAP's Chew Chong Sin, the Mengkibol assemblyman, whose constituency borders Mahkota.

In contrast, PN has been campaigning in smaller groups, but their efforts seem “less robust,” despite support from party leaders.

"The choice of candidate is crucial for BN. They’ve fielded a young, dynamic candidate with strong local ties who speaks Mandarin, enabling better outreach to Chinese voters.

"This contrasts with PN’s older candidate, Mohamad Haizan Jaafar, who seems less effective in communication. However, as a former footballer, he may still attract support from younger voters," Mazlan noted.

Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM), Faculty of Administrative Science and Policy Studies, senior lecturer Dr Che Hamdan Che Mohd Razali, echoed similar sentiments, believing that local political dynamics could help BN and UMNO secure victory.

"The leadership under Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi (UMNO) has maintained a stable state government. However, national-level issues could affect non-Malay support,” he explained.

Che Hamdan pointed out that every by-election presents unique challenges and serves as a test for political coalitions, whether in the Unity Government or PN. In Mahkota, securing the support of core voters on both sides will be crucial.

"This is also an opportunity to solidify a comfortable victory, based on the combined votes BN and PH received in the previous state election," he added.

In the 2022 Johor state election, BN’s Datuk Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain won Mahkota with 16,611 votes, followed by PH’s Taqiuddin Cheman with 11,445 votes, PN’s Mohamad Nor Lingan with 7,614 votes, and Warisan’s Mohamed Noor Suleiman with 555 votes.

When asked if a win in Mahkota could lift BN’s spirits ahead of the Sabah state election, Che Hamdan noted the stark differences between the political dynamics in Johor and Sabah, particularly in terms of competition and alliances.

Meanwhile, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) lecturer Profr Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said the Mahkota by-election is important as it could either extend BN’s winning streak or signal a comeback for PN after their recent loss in Kelantan’s Nenggiri by-election.

He believes BN currently has the upper hand in Mahkota and the outcome will reflect public sentiment towards Onn Hafiz’s leadership as Johor’s Menteri Besar.

"Although PN is seen as the underdog, they should not be underestimated. A strong showing in Mahkota could serve as a benchmark for increasing Malay support.

"For BN, the result will reflect voter approval of their cooperation with PH in the Unity Government. However, key factors like voter turnout, protest votes and the mobilisation of core supporters will determine the majority, especially given BN’s significant lead in the last election," Sivamurugan said.

The Mahkota by-election, a contest between Syed Hussien (40) and Mohamad Haizan (61), was called following the death of incumbent Sharifah Azizah (63) on Aug 2.

According to the Election Commission (EC), Mahkota has 66,318 registered voters, with Malays accounting for 54 percent followed by Chinese (34 pct) and Indians (eight pct).

Mahkota has been contested since 2004, with BN winning four out of the last five elections.

-- BERNAMA