By Amanda Yeo

Although the COVID-19 National Immunisation Programme (NIP) that started on Feb 24 provides light at the end of the tunnel, the continuous four-digit daily infection figures for more than one month has left Malaysia with no option other than to impose a country-wide lockdown effective May 12.

Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin announced on May 10 that Malaysia would be under the third Movement Control Order (MCO 3.0) till June 7.

“With daily cases exceeding 4,000 and active cases at 37,396 as well as 1,700 deaths reported as of May 10, Malaysia is facing a third COVID-19 wave that could trigger a national crisis,” he said.

Sabah and Sarawak are the only two states that are under the Conditional MCO (CMCO) with tightened restrictions. This is worrying as more Malaysians would find it difficult to make ends meet.

Hard-hit sectors

Public Investment Bank Bhd (PIVB) estimated that MCO 3.0 in the whole country would cost Malaysia RM300 million daily.

Therefore, there is increasing concern that hard-hit sectors such as tourism, retail, hospitality and food & beverage (F&B) might have to shutter their business operations forever due to the reintroduction of the country-wide lockdown.

Despite the current administration having provided numerous stimulus packages to ease the financial burden of Malaysians during the first two MCOs, the third MCO is expected to make more businesses struggle to stay afloat.

Stimulus packages

Up till March 2021, Malaysia spent a total of RM340 billion on several stimulus packages, such as:

Furthermore, the ban on dine-in at restaurants nationwide, except Sabah, has been made worse by the drastic drop in the number of e-hailing riders available for deliveries.

According to Foodpanda Malaysia’s Head of Logistics Shubham Saran, there had been a decrease in the number of food delivery riders around the Klang Valley over the past few weeks, especially during the fasting month of Ramadan.

The heavy downpour and thunderstorms right after working hours have made food deliveries extremely challenging too. Customers had to wait at least one hour for their food to arrive at their doorsteps, discouraging others from placing food orders online.

As they are merely relying on self pick-up orders, some restaurants are pessimistic they will lose approximately 80 to 90 per cent of revenue during the MCO 3.0, which is worse than the first two MCOs.

Poor communication

In addition, poor communication among different government ministries and agencies had left businesses and individuals clueless on the standard operating procedures (SOPs) of the MCO 3.0.

Moreover, there is a lack of clarity and transparency after the Hotspot Identification for Dynamic Engagement (HIDE) list was released during the weekend just before Aidilfitri (May 8).

On the day itself, Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Khairy Jamaluddin indicated that places in the HIDE list could continue to operate as usual as they are not COVID-19 clusters. The listed premises only have to close when there is a directive from the authorities.

A day later, however, Senior Minister (Security Cluster)) Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced that all premises listed under the HIDE system would be closed for three days (i.e. May 9 till 11). This gave little time for the shoppers to react as it was a peak shopping period for Muslim families to purchase items needed for their Raya celebration.

Factories and construction sites are allowed to operate during MCO 3.0 despite contributing the most number of COVID-19 clusters. According to CodeBlue’s analysis of the 314 COVID-19 clusters detected from Feb 22 to April 2, 48.06 per cent were in factories and 11.56 per cent at construction sites.

As the current SOPs are inconsistent and not based on science and data, many opposition leaders and ordinary Malaysians have expressed frustration via social media channels. This can be seen when the Prime Minister made a sudden announcement to implement a one-month country-wide lockdown on May 10.

Policy recommendations

Therefore, for Malaysia to overcome the COVID-19 third wave, EMIR Research has several policy recommendations for the current administration to look into:

1. Learn from New Zealand – using data and science to determine current SOPs. For instance, the New Zealand government introduced a four-tier response system in March last year by applying limitations on mass gatherings, encouraging increased physical distancing, closing all schools and non-essential workplaces, prohibiting social gathering and imposing severe travel restrictions;

2. Work with experts outside the Ministry of Health (MOH) for a real whole-of-society effort. The experts could apply machine learning and artificial intelligence tools, assisting the Malaysian government in identifying COVID-19 hotspots under the recently introduced HIDE system;

3. Impose stricter restrictions on the number of workers allowed in both factories and construction sites. By limiting the number of workers, factory owners and contractors could comply with SOPs, whereby the minimum physical distancing of at least one to two metres apart could be applied;

4. Follow the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommendation by fully employing the digitised find, test, trace, isolation and support (FTTIS) programme, reducing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country. This would minimise economic disruption and balance the well-being of both lives and livelihoods; and

5. Reduce the number of SOP violations without fear or favour, which will result in the people complying and assisting the government in fighting the health crisis together – reducing the burdens of frontliners in dealing with increasing numbers of COVID-19 patients.

When a decisive approach in dealing with the COVID-19 third wave in the country is taken, Malaysia could flatten the pandemic curve once again, and move towards economic recovery as per the pre-pandemic level.

-- BERNAMA

Amanda Yeo is Research Analyst at EMIR Research, an independent think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research.