By Sheriffah Noor Khamseah Al-Idid Dato Syed Ahmad Idid

World leaders at COP28 in Dubai have been encouraged by COP28 President Dr Sultan Al Jaber to disrupt business-as-usual practices and perspectives to identify impactful solutions to protect planet earth, its inhabitants and its biodiversity from destruction arising from climate change.

A turning point for Nuclear at COP28
COP28 had ushered in a critical turning point for the nuclear industry, shifting its reputation from a controversial energy source to being considered as part of key solutions to reach net zero goals; and from a taboo subject to speak of or discuss about to being recognised as an urgent solution to mitigate climate change, preventing it from escalating further into a climate crisis leading to the destruction of land, sea, environment, people, animals and plants.

Nuclear continued to be among the key topics which took centre stage at COP28, making world headlines.

IAEA’s inaugural Landmark Statement on Nuclear Power made at High Profile Event of COP28

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi (Fig 1) had delivered the agency’s inaugural statement at the high-profile event of the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, in which it was the first time such an IAEA statement was issued on Nuclear Power at COP.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in its landmark statement supported by dozens of countries at COP28, underscored that the world needs nuclear power to fight climate change and action should be taken to expand the use of this clean energy source and help build “a low carbon bridge” to the future.

Current Installed Nuclear Capacity - 1 December 2023

On 1 December 2023, the IAEA Director General highlighted that “Today, 412 nuclear power reactors operating in 31 countries make up more than 370 gigawatts of installed capacity, providing almost 10 per cent of the world’s total electricity and a quarter of its low-carbon supply. Several countries – including Bangladesh, Egypt and Türkiye – are building their first nuclear power plants, while many others have also decided to introduce nuclear energy. In addition, existing nuclear power countries, including China, France, India and Sweden to name a few, are planning to expand their nuclear programmes.”

2 December 2023 - Declaration by World Leaders at COP28 in Dubai to Triple Installed Nuclear Capacity by 2025

It was a momentous occasion to witness world leaders from 22 countries pledging to cooperate in the plans to triple current installed nuclear capacity by 2050 at COP28 (Fig 2).

Declaration by World Leaders from 22 countries on 2nd December 2023 in Dubai to triple installed nuclear capacity by 2050. (Photo: AP)

Fig 2: Declaration by World Leaders from 22 countries on 2nd December 2023 in Dubai to triple installed nuclear capacity by 2050. (Photo: AP)

Tripling Nuclear Capacity by 2025 announced on 2nd December 2023 falls on same date as ground-breaking Self Sustaining Nuclear Chain Reaction initiated in CP-1 at Chicago University, USA, on 2 December 1942
December 2, 1942 was a defining moment for the nuclear industry and the world, as the world’s first nuclear reactor, Chicago Pile-1 (CO-1), achieved criticality creating the world’s first controlled, self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction (Fig 3 and Fig 4).

Drawing of Chicago Pile-1, world’s first reactor - a pile of graphite and uranium that stood more than 20 feet tall and weighed several tons. (Photo: Argonne National Laboratory)

Fig 3: Drawing of Chicago Pile-1, world’s first reactor - a pile of graphite and uranium that stood more than 20 feet tall and weighed several tons.

(Photo: Argonne National Laboratory)

For the first time in history, humans had unleashed and controlled the power of the atom. The reactor was generating about half a watt. But power wasn’t important; what was important was that the nuclear chain reaction had been demonstrated.

Controlled and Uncontrolled Nuclear Chain Reaction
A large amount of energy is released during a nuclear chain reaction. If the chain reaction is controlled, it can be used for peaceful purposes such as in a research reactor used for the production of radioisotopes for medical, industrial and agriculture sectors or in a nuclear power reactor for electricity generation.

However, if the chain reaction is not controlled, a huge amount of energy is released which may lead to a massive explosion such as in the case of a nuclear bomb.

Controlled and Uncontrolled Nuclear Chain Reaction

Fig 4: Controlled and Uncontrolled Nuclear Chain Reaction

This breakthrough developed by a team of 49 scientists led by Nobel laureate Fermi Enrico had ushered in the Atomic Age. Fermi, who was instrumental in proving the possibility of nuclear chain reaction, is credited as Father of Nuclear Energy.

And now on 2nd December 2023, eighty years from the historic event of CP-1, world leaders from 22 countries have pledged at COP28 in Dubai to triple the current installed nuclear capacity by 2050.

Implications for Tripling Nuclear by 2050

The IAEA Statement on 1st December 2023 reported that presently 31 countries with 412 nuclear power reactors produce more than 370 Gigawatts (370GW) of installed capacity and, thus, tripling nuclear power by 2050 would involve increasing this to about 1110 Gigawatts (1110 GW), an equivalent to 1.11 TerraWatts (1,11TW).

Present Generation III and Generation III+ nuclear reactors (Fig 5) produce 1000 MWe to 1600 MWe installed nuclear capacity.

As Generation III and III+ nuclear reactors include, among others, Westinghouse and Toshiba’s AP-1000 generating 1,117MWe (1.117GWe), Russian VVER-1200 generating 1198 MWe, South Korea’s APR-1400 generating 1400MWe (1.4GW) to the largest French EDf’s EPR producing 1570 MWe (1.57 GW), countries have a wide choice of nuclear designs to select from.

To scale up from 370 GW to 1110 GW requires additional 740 GW from now, 2023, till 2050, within a period of 27 years

Projected Investments

i) Nuclear Reactors of 1000MW A) Westinghouse and Toshiba’s Design- AP-1000
In the United States, two units each of AP-1000 was built in Georgia by Southern Nuclear Company and Georgia Power in the Vogtle nuclear power plant (Vogtle Unit 3 and Unit 4). Vogtle Unit 3 began supplying electricity to the grid in April 2023.

On July 31, 2023, CNBC reported that the United States’ Vogtle AP-1000 Unit 3 and Unit 4 had cost more than US$30 billion (about US$15 billion per unit), US$16 billion over budget and more than six years behind schedule.

ii) AP-1000 built in China

In China, two units each of this same model AP-1000 were built in Sanmen and Haiyang.

WNA reported that the first pair of reactors was estimated to cost CNY 32.4 billion yuan (US$5.3 billion).

NUCNET reported on 21 September 2018 that Sanmen-1 missed its original 2013 start-up target due to design and supply chain bottle-necks and China Energy News reported in August, citing a State Nuclear Power Technology Corporation official, that Sanmen-1 was CNY 10 billion yuan (US$1.46 billion) over its original CNY 40 billion budget, costing CNY 50 billion yuan (US$7.3 billion), about US$3.65 billion per unit.

iii) China’s ambitious new builds

Forbes, dated 22 October 2015, reported that China’s new 13th Five-Year Plan covering 2016-2020 outlines that China will invest in over US$100 billion to construct about seven new reactors annually between now and 2030, and that by 2050, in China nuclear power should exceed 350 GW with about 400 new reactors and a trillion dollars in nuclear investments.

Forbes further dovetailed that six Chinese designed 1000MW reactors at Yingjiang will be a huge nuclear power base for China General Nuclear, and will cost only US$11.5 billion for over 6000 MW, about US$1.9 billion per unit, representing a third of the cost in the West.

Thus, based on the above scenario, to build additional 740GW with about 1GW western design costing US$15 million in the United States and US$3.7 billion in China would involve US$11,100 billion (US$11.1 trillion) and US$2,738 billion ( US$2.7 trillion), respectively.

However, if construction was based on China’s design of US$2 billion for 1GW, the cost involved would be US$1,480 billion (US$1.5 trillion).

Thus ramping up nuclear power to add 740 GW by 2050 would require an investment of between US$1.5 trillion to US$11.1 trillion.

The World’s first Nuclear Energy Summit in 2024

IAEA DG Rafael Grossi, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and French President Emmanuel Macron had announced at COP28 in Dubai that the world’s first nuclear energy summit would be held in Brussels in March 2024 to maintain the global momentum behind nuclear energy.

A Proposal to World Leaders, IAEA and other Nuclear Stakeholders

1) Business and Action Plans at 1st World Nuclear Summit in 2024

Thus, based on this large amount of cost required to triple nuclear power by 2050, it would be impactful for the coming World Nuclear Summit 2024 scheduled to be held in Brussels to gather these key stakeholders and other strategic partners to present the Business and Action Plan supporting this pledge:

a) projecting total investments required to triple installed nuclear capacity and outlining current and future sources of financing - from government as well as private sector transforming the pledge into reality,

b) identifying shortfall in sources and quantum for financing nuclear energy and use this as inputs to establish innovation in financing nuclear power, introducing new financing models aimed at increasing sources as well as amount of funds to finance nuclear energy ensuring tripling of nuclear becomes a reality.

c) identifying skills and competency required to support this massive scaling up of nuclear including the need to revamp current nuclear education & training to incorporate 4th industrial revolution technologies.

d) building up a robust nuclear supply chain ready to offer products and services needed to support this massive scale-up in construction of more nuclear power reactors and plants. Identifying new suppliers to integrate into the global nuclear supply chain to harmonise qualities and standards, and

e) restructuring very urgently employment policies, extending the retirement age of retiring professionals, tradesmen and other experts to remain in the workforce to share and impart their knowledge and experience to the younger generation to ensure the safe and efficient planning, construction, O&M and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide.
For the above, I would like to wish all stakeholders the very best in developing this business and action plan aimed at protecting planet Earth and all its inhabitants from climate emergency and its destructive consequences.

2) Declaration by World Leaders at COP28 in Dubai for 2nd December to be officially recognised and declared as World Nuclear Energy Day (WNED)

Although presently 31 countries with 412 reactors are producing 370 GW installed nuclear capacity, with the pledge by the world leaders at COP28 to triple nuclear power, an additional 740 GW is required to ramp up nuclear power to 1110 GW.

This urgently requires current nuclear operating countries to expand their nuclear power programme and, importantly, also for other countries with no nuclear power programme to introduce, invest in and launch nuclear power programmes, expanding from the present 31 countries.

However, traditionally these other countries with no nuclear power face challenges from fear of nuclear from politicians, policy makers, public and press (media), amongst others. Hence, strategic platforms must be made available to share, disseminate and update more stakeholders regarding the safety and benefits of nuclear.

Presently, key high-level meetings, discussions, and workshops on nuclear such as the IAEA General Conference, and nuclear summits, are attended by leaders and senior officials. However, there is no dedicated platform available to increase awareness and update other stakeholders, including politicians, policy makers, public, press (media), and students regarding nuclear.

Thus, it is within this context that I would like to propose to world leaders, the IAEA, OECD/NEA, and WNA to support and declare 2nd December as World Nuclear Energy Day (WNED) to serve as a strategic platform to share information and updates regarding nuclear to a wider audience including conducting workshops, webinars, holding exhibitions, media briefings, briefings to parliamentarians, policy makers, media, investors, businesses, students and the public regarding nuclear to increase their awareness regarding nuclear, which is instrumental to increase these stakeholders’ awareness regarding nuclear, to gain a balanced view of nuclear.

This awareness and understanding will facilitate the introduction and investments in nuclear energy, presently recognised as a key part of global solution to address climate crisis and enhance energy security.

-- BERNAMA

Sheriffah Noor Khamseah Al-Idid Dato Syed Ahmad Idid is Innovation & Nuclear Advocate alumna of the Imperial College, University of London, United Kingdom, and Member of Women in Nuclear Global (WiN Global).