Vientiane ASEAN Summit May Turn Into Fiery Venue Amid Flaring Geopolitical Tensions

By P. Vijian

PHNOM PENH, Oct 4 (Bernama) -- When over-worked Southeast Asian leaders arrive in Vientiane in Laos for the ASEAN Summit next week, they will be mindful of the global tensions that could upend the region’s growth prospects and stability. 

Geopolitical risks from Gaza-Israel-Iran to Ukraine-Russia could have a cascading impact on prices of commodities, crude oil, gold to currencies and shipping routes - that could hurt emerging economies highly interconnected to global markets and supply chains. 

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Despite divided opinions over regional issues such as Myanmar’s civil war and the South China Sea controversy, leaders need to collectively map out strategies and contingency plans if the Middle East military conflict heightens.

But this is easier said than done because all the group's 10 members walk with different agendas.

In the region, ASEAN’s quandaries stretch from sporadic insurgency-led violence in Southern Thailand, the protracted war between Muslim separatists and the Philippines government in the south, the plight of Rohingya to rising religious fundamentalism. 

In addition, emerging transnational online gambling that encourages human trafficking, proliferation of drugs and flow of black money are nagging Southeast Asian governments. And, climate change inflicts further pain. 

Although these backyard issues remain a political cauldron for leaders, they shied away by using ASEAN's cardinal code of non-interference as a shield. 

At this juncture, ASEAN’s Centrality concept of being at the forefront of settling conflicts and the ASEAN Security Community that aims at promoting a peaceful zone will be questioned.

“ASEAN is going through a difficult time considering that the grouping is yet to find a practical and effective solution to the Myanmar conundrum. The South China dispute involving China is also getting complicated with the Philippines firmly standing up for its rights and others unable to do much. 

“I believe the Laos summit would merely reiterate ASEAN’s collective concerns,” Senior Research Fellow Dr Rahul Mishra from Thammasat University, Bangkok told Bernama in an email interview.

The summit is poised to be a distinctive event hosted by the only landlocked nation in Southeast Asia and one of the five remaining Socialist countries - making it a significant location for convening a premier trade conference.

When Vientiane hosts the 44th and 45th ASEAN Summits from October 6 to 11, the region’s security will remain the apex of the agenda, and leaders have to reach a consensus to maintain steadfast peace and stability in the prosperous region. 

International terrorism and security expert, Dr Rohan Gunaratna Professor of Security Studies at Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, cautioned old conflicts are taking new dimensions, not only being a threat to the security side but adding a political shade to resolve their grievances.  

“Terrorists are crossing borders, money is moving across borders and propaganda is moving across borders. ASEAN needs a common database to track these and ASEAN countries with experience in tackling such issues must share their expertise,” Rohan told this news agency. 

Changing leadership in Thailand and Indonesia, both influential members of the trade bloc, could reset the future momentum of ASEAN. 

Thailand’s young Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's political skills are yet to be tested since taking office in August, while Prabowo Subianto's swearing in as the next Indonesian president later in October could swing the grouping’s directions. 

Speaking to Bernama from Kedah, Prof Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani, Politics and International Studies, Universiti Utara, said it will be a muted affair in Vientiane as hard issues are unlikely to be debated. 

“Laos is very close to China because of investments and therefore they are unlikely to touch on sensitive issues like Myanmar or the South China Sea.

“The Summit will focus more towards building engagement among ASEAN members to tackle climate change, food security, energy security and promoting green technology.

“Building more engagement between people-to-people and government-to-government and promoting intra-ASEAN trade will be the main agenda and this also aligns with Laos’ summit theme “Enhancing Connectivity and Resilience,” said Mohd Azizuddin.

Brewing Middle East tensions could indirectly set the tone in Vientiane, forcing leaders to work harder to reach a consensus to safeguard the region.

The customary group photo of smiling senior leaders at the conclusion of each summit may not be cheerful this time around. 

-- BERNAMA