CIMB Expects BNM To Hold OPR At 2.75 Pct

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 29 (Bernama) -- CIMB Investment Bank Bhd expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to keep the overnight policy rate (OPR) unchanged at 2.75 per cent at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Sept 4, 2025.

In a Treasury and Markets Research report today, CIMB said risks to the growth outlook remain the key catalyst for potential changes in BNM’s monetary policy stance.

“Malaysia has avoided an adverse tariff scenario, securing a reduction from 25 per cent to 19 per cent in line with regional peers. This outcome keeps gross domestic product (GDP) growth within BNM’s revised forecast range of 4.0–4.8 per cent in 2025 (CIMB: +4.3 per cent).

“The second quarter (2Q) of 2025 outturn of 4.4 per cent growth year-on-year (y-o-y) likely marks the peak, with a deceleration pencilled in for 3Q 2025,” it said.

CIMB noted that BNM’s reaction function has historically been less influenced by the United States (US) monetary policy — the OPR did not follow the US Federal Funds Rate’s climb in 2022–2023 — indicating that the more dovish US Federal Reserve outlook alone is insufficient to trigger further cuts.

Instead, it said BNM is likely to emphasise data dependence in the September MPC statement, which will also update forward guidance and its growth assessment.

-- BERNAMA