CPO Prices To Remain Firm Between RM4,200 And RM4,500 Per Tonne — MPOC
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 22 (Bernama) -- Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to remain firm between RM4,200 and RM4,500 per tonne in the coming weeks, supported by tighter exportable supplies and positive sentiment in the vegetable oil market, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC).
In a statement today, MPOC said palm oil production is set to enter its low season in November, with stocks likely to decline after peaking in October.
“The upside is capped by weak demand from key markets, while support comes from uncertainty in exportable supplies, mainly palm oil from Indonesia and soybean oil from the United States and Brazil due to biodiesel policies,” it said.
It noted that crude oil prices have stabilised at around US$60 per barrel, with potential gains likely to provide further support to vegetable oils.
MPOC said Malaysia’s palm oil production rose by 43,000 tonnes, or 2.4 per cent, month-on-month to 1.85 million tonnes in August, driven by higher output in Sabah and Sarawak, while Peninsular Malaysia recorded a decline after peaking in July.
Exports in August were broadly unchanged from July at 1.32 million tonnes, with higher shipments to Asia-Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, the European Union (EU), North Africa and the Middle East, offset by lower exports to the Americas and South Asia.
With production higher and exports steady, palm oil inventories rose to 2.20 million tonnes in August, the highest since January 2024.
“Despite the recent increase, Malaysia’s palm oil stocks remain manageable, still well below the 2018 to 2019 levels of 2.5 to 2.7 million tonnes,” MPOC said.
The council said palm oil was the price leader in the vegetable oil complex during the third quarter, rising 10.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter, compared with gains of 5.1 per cent in sunflower oil and 3.8 per cent in soybean oil, while rapeseed oil fell 0.7 per cent after China imposed a 75.8 per cent import duty on Canadian canola.
“Despite the mixed performance, sentiment across the broader vegetable oil market remained positive, with momentum expected to continue into the fourth quarter,” it added.
Looking ahead, MPOC expects consumption of palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oils in 2026 to outpace production growth, resulting in a modest supply deficit.
On importing countries, MPOC said India’s vegetable oil stocks rose 41 per cent to 1.86 million tonnes in August from 1.33 million tonnes in May, while China’s inventories climbed 21 per cent year-on-year to 2.4 million tonnes, including about 646,000 tonnes of palm oil as of mid-September.