CPO Prices To Rebound Towards RM4,500 Per Tonne Amid Festive Demand, Output Slowdown - MPOC
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 20 (Bernama) -- Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to find strong support at RM4,100 to RM4,200 per tonne in December 2025 and could trend higher towards RM4,500 per tonne, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC).
The council said the projection is driven by stable import demand ahead of the Chinese New Year and Ramadan, while Indonesia’s policy uncertainty continues to lend support to palm oil prices.
“Market reports suggest the Indonesian government may adjust export duties to secure sufficient domestic feedstock. The timing of Indonesia’s shift to a higher biodiesel mandate – whether B45 or B50 – remains a key swing factor influencing exportable supplies in 2026,” MPOC said in a statement today.
Malaysia’s palm oil production surged by 11 per cent to 203,000 tonnes in October, marking the highest monthly output in a decade. Sabah led the growth with a month-on-month increase of 19.5 per cent to 72,000 tonnes, followed by Sarawak, up 14.6 per cent at 61,000 tonnes, and Peninsular Malaysia at 68,000 tonnes, gained by 6.5 per cent.
“The strong production in October was supported by the late arrival of the monsoon, improved fertilisation, and favourable rainfall patterns throughout 2024,” MPOC said.
Exports in October were also robust, rising by 18.6 per cent or 265,000 tonnes to 1.69 million tonnes. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for most of the improvement, with exports hitting a record 577,000 tonnes, or 34 per cent of Malaysia’s total exports, while exports to China climbed to a five-month high of 110,000 tonnes.
Malaysian palm oil stocks rose to 2.46 million tonnes in October, the highest since April 2019, despite export growth outpacing production, said MPOC.
“The rise in stocks was not driven by production or export dynamics, but by softer domestic consumption,” it said.
The council also said Malaysia imported 708,000 tonnes of palm oil from Indonesia between January and October 2025, a 266 per cent increase from 193,000 tonnes in the same period last year.
On the global front, palm oil prices eased four per cent in November as stocks continued to accumulate, while sunflower, soybean and rapeseed oil prices were largely unchanged, widening palm oil’s discount to soft oils.
“As of mid-November, palm oil traded at a US$120 discount to sunflower oil, US$48 and US$34 below soybean oil and rapeseed oil,” it added.
-- BERNAMA