Navigating The 2026 F1 Calendar Amid West Asia Conflict

By Siti Radziah Hamzah

KUALA LUMPUR, March 15 (Bernama) -- As the 2026 Formula 1 (F1) season opened in Melbourne from March 6-8, the sport is facing one of its most complex geopolitical challenges in recent years.

Recent regional developments, particularly tensions surrounding the United States-Iran conflict, placed the upcoming rounds in Bahrain, scheduled to be held April 10-12 and Saudi Arabia from April 17-19, under close monitoring by global organisers.

Today, the Federation Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA) announced that both the Bahrain Grand Prix and the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix have been cancelled, with no substitutions. 

With both events cancelled, the calendar now shrinks from a record 24 races to 22 rounds.

For the F1 leadership, the decision had ultimately hinged on three factors: legal risk, commercial obligations and the complexity of its global logistics network.

The Formula One Group and the FIA, the governing body for motorsport, are prioritising a safety-first observation period before finalising the April calendar.

Although Malaysia’s Sepang International Circuit (SIC) is a technically capable Grade 1 circuit alternative, the decision-making process involves more than just identifying an available track.

It requires balancing safety protocols, contractual obligations, and a global logistics network already affected by transit disruptions in West Asia. 

 

Legal Weight of Force Majeure

Recently, Formula 1 chief executive officer and president Stefano Domenicali said the sport was prepared to explore "all options" regarding the upcoming Middle Eastern races, while prioritising the safety of teams, personnel and event promoters.

Domenicali noted that around 3,000 personnel are required to move around the world for each race, while about 900 tonnes of equipment are transported by air, with additional freight shipped by sea, underscoring the scale of the logistical challenge.

Consequently, the sport is taking a considered approach rather than rushing into a premature decision.

Under English law, which governs these hosting agreements, F1 typically requires clear legal triggers before cancelling a race without incurring steep contractual liabilities. These triggers include official government travel advisories or significant airspace restrictions.

Modern F1 contracts involve billion-dollar broadcasting and sponsorship commitments. As such, any decision to cancel or relocate a race requires consensus among promoters, teams and insurers to protect the sport’s commercial framework.

 

Geopolitics and the Racing Calendar

F1 has previously adjusted its calendar in response to geopolitical instability.

In 2011, the Bahrain Grand Prix was cancelled due to widespread unrest linked to the pro-democracy protests of the Arab Spring. Safety concerns for both teams and spectators led the FIA to postpone the event and ultimately remove it from the season's schedule.

In 2022, the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi was cancelled following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with F1 subsequently terminating its long-term contract with the race promoter.

However, the 2022 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix proceeded despite a Houthi rebel missile attack on a nearby Aramco oil depot during a practice session.

The latest tensions in West Asia involving Iran, Israel and the US have already begun to affect preparations for the 2026 season.

A Pirelli wet tyre test scheduled for late February at the Bahrain International Circuit was abruptly cancelled following security concerns sparked by missile strikes in the region.

 

The Commercial Equation

Historically, F1 worked aggressively to replace cancelled races to meet minimum race requirements set by broadcasters.

However, with the calendar now expanded to a record 24 rounds, those contractual thresholds have already been met.

In practical terms, the expanded calendar creates a built-in “22-race safety net” allowing F1 to absorb cancellations without triggering broadcast penalties.

This gives organisers greater flexibility to cancel races outright rather than rushing to secure replacement venues.

Oil-rich host nations such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are estimated to pay more than US$50 million (US$1=RM3.91) annually in sanctioning fees to stage the championship.

Should F1 move a race to a European "backup" venue such as the Imola Circuit in Italy, Circuit Paul Ricard in France or even Malaysia's SIC, those circuits would be unlikely to afford the US$50 million fee on short notice.

During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, F1 addressed this by staging races at several circuits under short-term arrangements with track owners to ensure television commitments were met.

However, with the calendar already expanded to 24 races in 2026, the preference is increasingly to cancel races rather than accept significantly lower hosting fees that could undermine the commercial benchmark for future contracts.

 

Navigating a Logistical Chokepoint

Logistics present another major constraint.

Staging a race requires transporting nearly 900 tonnes of equipment across continents via air and sea, making the coordination of personnel and freight a major operational challenge.

F1’s "leapfrog" freight system, managed by DHL, relies on multiple sets of non-essential equipment travelling by sea while critical components such as cars and engines move by air.

However, global shipping disruptions and rerouted freight flows through the Middle East have complicated these schedules.

Geographically, Sepang would be a logical fit following the Japanese Grand Prix on March 29.

However, rerouting F1’s freight system on short notice is far more complex than simply inserting another circuit into the calendar.

 

Commercial Prudence and National Interest

Any potential return to Malaysia would also require a strong commercial bridge.

Malaysia previously hosted 19 editions of the Malaysian Grand Prix at the SIC between 1999 and 2017.

However, the Malaysian government has reiterated that there are currently no plans to revive the annual race due to high sponsorship costs and an already crowded global calendar.

With Petronas prioritising domestic investment while committing to a RM20 billion dividend payment to the government in 2026, the financial structure required to host a Grand Prix remains a key consideration.

 

Racing Season at Crossroads

The FIA’s final decision on the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix left Formula 1 with either a rare mid-season calendar contraction or a complex logistical pivot.  

While Sepang’s technical readiness and public support remain clear, the pathway back to Malaysia is shaped by international law, commercial considerations and a global logistics network under strain.

-- BERNAMA