Kenanga Investment Bank Maintains 2026 Loan Growth Forecast At 5.0-5.5 Pct

KUALA LUMPUR, April 30 (Bernama) -- Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd has maintained its 2026 loan growth forecast at 5.0 per cent to 5.5 per cent, supported by steady household demand as well as supportive labour market. 

In a research note, the investment bank said this is consistent with its unemployment rate forecast of 2.9 per cent in 2026, steady income growth and a largely unchanged interest rate environment. 

“Nevertheless, domestic risks persist. 

“Elevated energy prices are expected to raise living costs and may erode households’ purchasing power, dampening discretionary spending and borrowing appetite,” said Kenanga. 

On the business side, it said cautious sentiment among small and medium enterprises (SMEs), amid cost pressures, may weigh on loan demand. 

In addition, reduced government spending due to subsidy-related adjustment or delays in public infrastructure projects could temper credit expansion, particularly in construction and supply‑chain‑related segments. 

Meanwhile on the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) outlook, it expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.75 per cent throughout 2026. 

"BNM is unlikely to hike rates as inflation remains largely cost‑driven and domestic growth still faces external headwinds. 

"Hence, BNM is expected to prioritise growth support over pre‑emptive tightening," it said.

It also said a stable policy rate should continue to provide certainty for households and businesses, limiting credit stress and supporting borrowing activity. 

Further policy support is more likely to come via targeted fiscal and financial measures.

This include an additional RM5.0 billion in micro SME financing under BNM and a RM5.0 billion expansion in Syarikat Jaminan Pembiayaan Perniagaan (SJPP) guarantees, which should help sustain SME credit access, particularly in energy-sensitive sectors, and cushion downside risks to business loan growth.

-- BERNAMA