US Tariffs, Myanmar Crisis To Dominate ASEAN Discussions - Analyst

By Nabilah Saleh

KUALA LUMPUR, July 8 (Bernama) -- The ongoing crisis in Myanmar and the global impact of United States (US) tariffs are set to take centre stage at the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (AMM), which opens on Tuesday in Kuala Lumpur, as Southeast Asian nations navigate rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.

Amid the backdrop of the Israel-Gaza conflict, escalating tensions in the South China Sea and a surge in global protectionism, ASEAN faces growing pressure to present a united front and safeguard regional autonomy in the face of intensifying rivalry between major powers.

“Myanmar remains the most pressing issue. Despite the Five-Point Consensus and efforts to present a united front, the crisis continues to challenge ASEAN cohesion,” said Dr Rowena Abdul Razak, a historical consultant and an Associate with IMAN Research.

She said Thailand’s political situation may also affect the regional dynamic, particularly in its relations with Myanmar. The recent suspension of its Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, could alter Bangkok’s engagement with Naypyidaw.

Developments along the Thailand-Cambodia border have also drawn attention, following a reported incident near the Chong Bok area in late May, she noted.

Rowena said external challenges are also expected to feature prominently, particularly ASEAN’s dealings with the US and China. While the bloc has so far maintained a degree of neutrality, evolving US policies continue to raise concerns.

“American policies, especially regarding tariffs and the Middle East, have been chaotic and unpredictable. ASEAN may need to explore a framework to guard the region against instability caused by such shifts.

“Even though Malaysia played down the threat’s economic impact, the situation caused regional concern. The AMM may want to discuss measures that protect key trade routes and airspace from future disruptions,” added Rowena, who specialises in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

The US’s tightening immigration stance and ongoing trade friction are also expected to be addressed during ASEAN’s Dialogue Partner meetings held alongside the AMM.

ASEAN member states will be closely watching how the US approaches its engagement with the region amid signs of increasing unilateralism.

The bloc is also expected to compare perspectives with Dialogue Partners on broader global concerns, particularly climate change.

“Climate change may emerge as a key issue, especially for the European Union (EU), which is likely struggling to find common ground with a less engaged US,” she added.

On the nuclear front, ASEAN is also likely to draw attention for its consistent stance as a nuclear-weapon-free zone -- a position that some analysts say could serve as a model in wider non-proliferation diplomacy.

Rowena said the region’s experience in managing regional nuclear arrangements offers a constructive example at a time when global nuclear stability is under strain.

“ASEAN provides a credible model of how regional and intergovernmental nuclear negotiations can be managed. Major powers, including the US, should be open to learning from this approach,” she said.

The 58th AMM and related meetings, a key annual event in the ASEAN calendar, will be hosted by Malaysia under its 2025 ASEAN Chairmanship theme, “Inclusivity and Sustainability”.

The highly anticipated gathering will see one of the largest assemblies of foreign ministers and high-ranking diplomats from around the world to discuss pressing global and regional issues, foster cooperation and advance the agenda of security and sustainability in ASEAN.

Over 40 foreign ministers and representatives from international organisations are scheduled to attend a series of ASEAN-led meetings at the Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre (KLCC) from July 8 to 11. 

All foreign ministers of ASEAN member states will be present, except for Myanmar, which will be represented by a senior official from its foreign ministry. The Foreign Minister from Timor-Leste will be participating as an observer.

This is the fifth time Malaysia has held the ASEAN chairmanship throughout its history as a member of the regional bloc, having previously chaired it in 1977, 1997, 2005, and 2015.

-- BERNAMA