CIMB Securities Expects 6.4 Pct Q-o-q Earnings Rise For O&G Sector In 4Q 2025

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 11 (Bernama) -- The oil and gas (O&G) sector is expected to record a 6.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) earnings increase in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q 2025), said CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd. 

In a note today, the stockbroking firm said the growth is driven by improved contributions from Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd and Bumi Armada Bhd following the absence of maintenance works, as well as the continued ramp-up of Yinson Holdings Bhd’s new floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) unit.

CIMB Securities said six of the eight companies under its coverage delivered third-quarter 2025 results that were in line with expectations, while two posted weaker-than-expected results.

“In contrast, we anticipate a relatively flat q-o-q showing from Dialog Group Bhd, MISC Bhd, and Petronas Dagangan Bhd, as operations are expected to remain largely stable.

“However, Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd’s sequential earnings are likely to soften, dropping 79.5 per cent q-o-q, reflecting seasonally slower offshore maintenance and workboat activities as the monsoon season weighs on operational intensity,” it added.

The brokerage house said it now projects the sector’s core profit for calendar year 2025 (CY2025) to contract by 28.6 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), compared with its earlier forecast of a 6.3 per cent y-o-y decline, marking the fourth consecutive year of contraction and pushing earnings to a new decade low in line with the downtrend seen since CY2021.

“From this lower earnings base, we expect the full year 2026 to stage a 40.4 per cent y-o-y rebound, underpinned by improvements at Dayang (+6.1 per cent y-o-y), Dialog (+13.8 per cent y-o-y), Yinson (+84.2 per cent y-o-y) and MISC (+10.6 per cent y-o-y).

“We also anticipate a rebound from Petronas Chemicals and narrower losses from Lotte Chemical Titan Holding Bhd. Nonetheless, we anticipate recovery to be gradual, tempered by ongoing structural constraints and company-specific headwinds,” it said.

-- BERNAMA