Malaysia's Current Account Surplus To Grow 1.5-2.5 Pct Of GDP In 2026 - CIMB

KUALA LUMPUR, April 1 (Bernama) -- Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has projected Malaysia’s current account surplus to widen to 1.5-2.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, according to CIMB Treasury and Market Research.

In a note today, the research firm said the growth potential was supported by a higher goods surplus of RM128.1 billion in 2026 (2025:RM110.9 billion), and a larger services surplus of RM5 billion (2025: RM1.2 billion), the latter benefiting from tourist arrivals under Visit Malaysia Year 2026 and the progressive operationalisation of data centre facilities.

However, CIMB said the growth is expected to be partly offset by a wider primary income deficit of -RM74.2 billion from -RM69.5 billion in 2025.

This reflects sustained profit repatriation by multinational companies operating in Malaysia, as well as a larger secondary income deficit of  -RM13.2 billion (2025: -RM10.8 billion), driven by outward remittances by foreign workers, said CIMB.

The research firm also noted that the ongoing West Asia conflict introduces two-sided risks to this outlook, mainly a prolonged disruption to global shipping lanes and energy infrastructure.

“This could weigh on external demand and tourism activity, though Malaysia’s position as a net energy exporter driven by liquified natural gas (LNG) surpluses provides a partial hedge against elevated global energy prices,” it noted.

Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB) expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to adopt a wait-and-see stance, keeping the overnight policy rate (OPR) steady at 2.75 per cent in 2026, given BNM’s expectation of sustained growth and moderate inflation

“In the near term, Malaysia’s potential output will remain supported by capital accumulation and productivity gains amid higher investments in information and communication technology (ICT) and electrical and electronics (E&E) sectors,” said HLIB.

-- BERNAMA