Kenanga IB Keeps Distributive Trade Forecast At 6.1 Pct Amid Energy-driven Downside Risks

KUALA LUMPUR, April 10 (Bernama) -- Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga IB) maintained its 2026 distributive trade forecast at 6.1 per cent, though downside risks from the ongoing energy crisis may warrant a downward revision.

Regarding outlook, Kenanga IB said near-term sales momentum should stay resilient, supported by the recent festival season.

“Fiscal measures will provide an additional lift to domestic consumption, and the Visit Malaysia 2026 campaign should reinforce sales growth. While the US-Iran ceasefire offers some near-term relief, renewed geopolitical strains and energy price volatility remain key downside risks,” it said in a research note today.

On the gross domestic product (GDP) forecast, Kenanga said that the forthcoming advance estimate for the first quarter of 2026 (1Q 2026) from the Department of Statistics Malaysia is expected to show resilience, albeit with some moderation.

“We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.5 per cent, underpinned by steady domestic demand, continued electrical and electronics sector strength and ongoing structural reforms,” it added.

Kenanga IB said that Malaysia’s status as a net energy exporter, targeted subsidy framework, and fiscal credibility provide meaningful buffers against oil price swings.

It added that on the downside, the risk increases from 2Q 2026 onward due to potential geopolitical escalation, supply disruptions, and trade spillovers.

“Upside risks remain, however, if the global tech upcycle and data centre investment accelerate,” it said.

-- BERNAMA