US-China ‘Guardrail’ Summit May Marginalise Smaller Nations, Says Academic

By Wan Muhammad Aslah Wan Razali

KUALA LUMPUR, May 15 (Bernama) -- The recent high-stakes summit between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping serves primarily as a “guardrail” effort to manage structural competition between the two powers. 

University of Nottingham Malaysia Faculty of Social Sciences assistant professor Dr Chee Meng Tan warned, however, that efforts towards greater bilateral oversight could marginalise the voices of smaller nations.

“It’s really sort of a guardrail summit, which basically means that Washington and China are trying to build shock absorbers around the permanent structural competition going on between both sides right now,” he said, noting that the meeting was not necessarily aimed at completely resetting or redefining ties between Beijing and Washington.

He said the US was seeking to implement a “Board of Trade” to ensure compliance after China fell short of a US$200 billion commitment under the 2020 Phase One trade deal, while Beijing was pushing for a “Board of Investment” to protect its assets from being curtailed.

“…if these two powers engage in bilateral discussions, and not multilateral discussions using the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and so on, it probably means that we have to listen to what all these guys actually say, and our ability to sort of resist may actually be lower,” he said.

Speaking on Bernama TV’s Bernama World programme on Friday, Chee said while such mechanisms could help stabilise market ties, they also create a dynamic that could reduce the role of multilateral platforms.

Despite ongoing tensions and Xi’s warnings of the “Thucydides Trap” – the notion of inevitable conflict when a rising power challenges an established one – Chee said a complete economic decoupling between the two countries remained highly unlikely.

The business economics expert said the presence of prominent US chief executive officers at the summit underscored deep economic interdependence between the two countries.

He said the US remains heavily reliant on China for market capacity and critical rare earths needed for green technology, while China continues to depend on certain American technologies.

Because of this mutual reliance, which prevents a clear winner from emerging in the foreseeable future, he said Malaysia and other middle-power nations would be able to continue hedging their positions without being pressured to take sides.

He added that neutral blocs such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) stand to benefit significantly, as countries seeking to maintain supply chains without antagonising either Washington or Beijing are likely to pivot towards middle powers such as Malaysia for semiconductor and green technology manufacturing.

Ultimately, he said the summit’s significance would be determined by concrete actions rather than positive optics. Among the key indicators to watch, he said, are the further lifting of rare earth export restrictions and China’s actual commitment to purchasing US agricultural goods and aircraft.

He noted that reports of China reducing its intended purchase of Boeing jets from 500 to 200 had already caused the aerospace company’s shares to fall by four per cent, underscoring how post-summit actions continue to shape market realities.

-- BERNAMA