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KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 26 (Bernama) -- The crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) is expected to trade between RM4,000 per tonne and RM4,600 per tonne from now until March 31, 2025.
Godrej International Ltd director Dorab Mistry said it is still a bullish period, and the three factors, namely the leanest production month, the lowest stocks and disruption due to Ramadan, are expected to keep the market active.
“After Ramadan, I expect a significant pickup in palm oil production and a slide in palm oil prices, which will eventually make palm oil once again more competitive.
“Between April and November, I expect the BMD’s CPO futures to trade between RM3,600 a tonne and RM4,100 a tonne, but more on the lower side than on the higher side,” he said when presenting his paper titled ‘Is It Time to Lift the Indonesian Moratorium? Price Outlook 2025’ at the 36th Palm and Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference and Exhibition 2025 here today.
He said the price outlook this year is influenced by factors such as the United States (US) Trump administration’s measures, including tariffs, sanctions and trade war, the outlook for energy prices, and North American weather.
“In addition, factors also include the trajectory of the US dollar, with this being the one factor which may be mitigating on the bullish side because the Trump regime ends up talking of a very strong dollar versus a weak dollar, with the weak dollar usually leading to higher commodity prices.
“Most of the shrinkage in supply is now, but the expansion in supply is going to come post-April or in the second half of 2025,” he added.
Meanwhile, he said planting and growing weather in North America will take centre stage from May onwards.
“Soybean oil futures in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) will recover due to complicated and restricted incentives for US biofuels.
“While CBOT soybean oil futures will be stable to strong, cash basis in South America will remain weak,” he said, adding that sunflower oil prices will remain at a premium.
-- BERNAMA
