MOSCOW, May 13 (Bernama-Sputnik/RIA Novosti) -- OPEC has downgraded its forecast for the global oil demand growth in 2026 unchanged by 210,000 barrels per day to 1.17 million barrels per day and expects it at the level of 106.33 million barrels per day, according to its new report released on Wednesday.
Demand growth in 2026 is expected to reach 1.17 million barrels per day, which is 210,000 barrels per day lower than last month's figure of 1.38 million, reported Sputnik/RIA Novosti.
Commercial stocks of crude oil and petroleum products in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries decreased by 21.6 million barrels in March to 2.774 billion barrels, which is 8.3 million barrels above the five-year average, according to the report.
"According to preliminary March 2026 data, OECD commercial oil inventories decreased by 21.6 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,774 mb.
“At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 25.0 mb higher, y-o-y, and 8.3 mb above the latest five-year average, but 139.9 mb below the 2015–2019 average," the report read.
In two months since the beginning of the escalation of the conflict in West Asia, Saudi Arabia has reduced oil production by almost 1.5 times to 6.768 million barrels, the report showed.
Iraq reduced oil output by three times to 1.389 million barrels per day, while Kuwait reduced by by 4.3 times, to 600,000 barrels, and Iran reduced by 12 per cent, to 2.854 million barrels compared to February, the reported showed. In April alone, compared with March, these countries showed a total drop in oil production of 2.021 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the organisation, accounted for almost half of this volume.
Bahrain's production, which is only part of the OPEC+ agreement, but not the OPEC, has also almost tripled in two months, to 55,000 barrels per day. In April, the country lost 26,000 barrels of its volumes. Oman, another OPEC+ member in the Middle East, has maintained production just above 800,000 barrels per day.
At the same time, the UAE demonstrated a recovery in oil production to 2.023 million barrels per day in April. In March, their production was 1.8 times lower than in February, to 1.892 million barrels per day. The Emirates decided to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1.
OPEC still expects production of oil and condensate in the United States to decrease by 110,000 barrels per day in 2026 to an average of 13.3 million barrels per day.
"In 2026, US liquids production, excluding processing gains, is expected to increase by around 150 tb/d, y-o-y, to average 22.4 mb/d. Crude oil and condensate production is set to drop by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 13.3 mb/d," the report read.
The production in 2026 will be 13.34 million barrels per day against 13.42 million barrels per day a year earlier. Last month, the organisation also predicted a decrease of 110,000 barrels per day.
Russia's oil production in April decreased by 107,000 barrels per day compared to March to 9.057 million barrels per day.
In March, Russia produced an average of 9.164 million barrels of oil per day.
OPEC maintains its estimate for non-OPEC+ oil production growth in 2026 unchanged at 54.83 million barrels per day, the organisation said in its fresh report on Wednesday.
The report clarifies that the increase will amount to 0.63 million barrels per day, the same as a month earlier. At the same time, production is expected to reach 54.83 million barrels per day as in the previous report.
--BERNAMA-SPUTNIK/RIA NOVOSTI
