Maybank IB Raises 2025 TIV Forecast By Five Pct To 790,000 Units

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 5 (Bernama) -- Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) has raised its total industry volume (TIV) forecast for this year by five per cent to 790,000 units, up from its previous estimate of 750,000 units.

In a research note today, the investment bank said its revised forecast reflects sustained mass-market growth, offset by weakness in the premium/luxury segment, with a positive catalyst from another operating margin variance (OMV) deferment.

It said that mass-market sales particularly from Perodua and some Proton models, are expected to benefit from higher consumer spending, driven by the minimum wage increase in February 2025 and the civil servant wage hike in December 2024.

“The mass-premium market segment (vehicles priced RM100,000-RM200,000) will face margin pressure from intensified competition but should still contribute to overall TIV growth.

“Meanwhile, the premium/luxury segment is likely to struggle due to competition from affordable and attractive new models, including electric vehicles (EVs), as well as potential petrol subsidy cuts and the high-value goods tax, which could offset growth in other segments,” it said.

Maybank IB also projected that battery electric vehicle/hybrid electric vehicle adoption will reach three and five per cent, respectively, in 2025, compared to two and four per cent last year.

This growth will be driven by new model launches and aggressive pricing, especially from completely built-up (CBU) brands rushing to sell before the EV CBU incentives expire.

However, as of October 2024, only 3,354 EV chargers had been installed, far below the 10,000-unit target for 2025. Meeting this goal will require 554 new chargers to be installed per month, compared to the 2024 average of just 111 per month, it noted.

The bank explained that the OMV exercise duty determines the taxable value of completely knocked-down (CKD) vehicles by factoring in not just production costs but also sales-related expenses, such as design and licensing fees.

“If implemented, CKD car prices could rise by 10-30 per cent, making locally assembled cars significantly more expensive.

“We believe this could hurt local TIV sales, especially if it coincides with other headwinds like petrol subsidy rationalisation and the high-value goods tax, potentially dampening consumer sentiment and market demand,” it added.

-- BERNAMA