Myanmar Civil War Risks Regional Humanitarian Crisis, Warns Thai Think Tank

By Vijian Paramasivam

PHNOM PENH, Dec 18 (Bernama) -- A Bangkok-based think tank has warned that the ongoing turmoil in Myanmar, which has displaced over 1.18 million citizens, is now Southeast Asia's most pressing humanitarian crisis.

The Centre for Strategic Policy has called on ASEAN and the international community to urgently develop a roadmap to address the welfare of displaced individuals, as they are also vulnerable to exploitation by trafficking networks.

Since the coup d'état in February 2021, thousands of Myanmar citizens have fled to neighbouring countries. About 90,000 registered refugees are living in camps along the Thai border in Mae Hong Son, Tak, Kanchanaburi and Ratchaburi provinces, according to the centre.

“To address this crisis effectively, coordinated efforts between Thailand, ASEAN, and international organisations are needed to balance immediate aid delivery with longer-term strategies for refugee integration and regional stability,” the think tank said.

The think tank's report, titled “Myanmar and Thailand at the Crossroads”, was released on Monday. It coincided with Malaysia's announcement on the same day of the appointment of influential former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra as an informal adviser when Malaysia takes over the rotating ASEAN chairmanship in 2025.

The situation in Myanmar, according to experts, remains grim as armed conflict between the junta and ethnic parties continues to intensify, while efforts to broker peace have fizzled out. 

Thailand plans to host two regional-level meetings later this month to find constructive solutions to the Myanmar crisis by inviting top Myanmar military leaders.  

The political quagmire in Myanmar is high on the agenda of regional governments, fearing the internal crisis could erupt into a major conflict, triggering a large-scale refugee emergency. 

The last time Southeast Asia witnessed a massive refugee crisis was in 1975, when thousands of Vietnamese boat people flooded neighbouring countries after the end of the Vietnam War.

The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) estimated that since 1975, about 840,000 Vietnamese asylum-seekers arrived in Southeast Asia – a tragic episode that ballooned into a major international humanitarian calamity, which lasted for decades. 

Malaysia gave temporary asylum to 255,000 Vietnamese boat people.

Myanmar watchers are warning policymakers to avoid another human catastrophe similar to the Vietnamese boat tragedy in the region and are alerting ASEAN member states to unite and quickly end the bloody civil war. 

“Efforts to deliver aid to displaced populations have faced significant logistical and political obstacles. Criticisms of ASEAN-led initiatives, which often rely on the SAC (State Administration Council) junta for access, highlight the difficulty of ensuring that humanitarian assistance reaches opposition-held areas where needs are most acute. 

“Host communities in Thailand have experienced increased strain on local resources, intensifying tensions in already fragile regions,” said the report.

The newly established centre has put forth several proposals, including appointing a Special Envoy from ASEAN to coordinate diplomatic and humanitarian efforts, advocating for the Five-Point Consensus, and launching a "Road of Peace" initiative aimed at facilitating trade and humanitarian assistance.

-- BERNAMA