MPOC Expects CPO Prices To Hold Above RM4,300 Per Tonne In Near Term

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 19 (Bernama) -- Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to hold above RM4,300 per tonne in the near term despite price fluctuations, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC).

In a statement today, MPOC said the tightening of soybean oil export availability, combined with the prospect of slower palm oil supply growth relative to biodiesel demand, should provide continued support.

“CPO has recently soared above RM4,500 per tonne and may remain volatile in the weeks ahead. However, the sustainability of palm oil’s price strength will depend on its competitiveness against soybean oil in the export market,” it said.

MPOC said the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that 52 per cent of US soybean oil production will be used domestically for biodiesel in 2026, rising by 1.5 million tonnes (26.7 per cent) to 7.0 million tonnes.

This surge in domestic use will sharply reduce export availability, with US soybean oil exports forecast to drop from 1.15 million tonnes in 2025 to just 310,000 tonnes in 2026. 

On palm oil imports, India’s palm oil imports from Malaysia surged 16 per cent in July to 301,000 tonnes, the highest in nine months, even as Malaysia’s palm oil inventories climbed to a 19-month high of 2.11 million tonnes on a slower pace of exports.

“Demand from India is expected to remain firm in September as importers stock up ahead of Diwali. Sub-Saharan Africa is also projected to maintain steady imports of about 300,000 tonnes, providing additional support for exports,” it said.

Although Malaysian palm oil stocks have been rising since February, it said supply pressure remains limited, while Indonesia’s biodiesel programme remains on track, consuming more than one million tonnes of palm oil monthly since February, preventing a stock build-up in the country.

“According to Oil World, global palm oil output is expected to rise by 1.6 million tonnes to reach 83.1 million tonnes in 2026, with the bulk of the increase coming from Indonesia.

“With supply growth lagging behind biodiesel demand, palm oil prices are likely to stay firm. Thus, Malaysia’s palm oil stocks are unlikely to see a major build-up in September and October 2025,” said MPOC.

-- BERNAMA