High time for ASEAN to reconsider its approaches to resolve Myanmar crisis -- Analysts

By Linda Khoo Hui Li

BANGKOK, March 5 (Bernama) -- ASEAN’s ‘consensus dilemma’, and the need to explore new avenues in working with Myanmar’s junta to resolve outstanding issues as highlighted by Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim recently, is a wake-up call for ASEAN to reconsider its approaches to help end the crisis in the troubled member state.

Anwar, at a talk at the University of the Philippines on Thursday during his two-day visit to the Philippines, said while decision-making by consensus continues to be a central tenet of ASEAN, this does not mean that it should remain silent over developments in member states that affect the wider region, or particularly egregious violations of the ASEAN Charter by its own members.

A day earlier during a press conference with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Anwar suggested on the possibilities of exploring new areas on how the Myanmar junta can be persuaded to work and collaborate as a team within ASEAN and resolve the outstanding issues which cannot be considered as purely internal because it’s affecting the security and welfare of the region.

In retrospect, there has been very little progress on ASEAN’s peace plan with Myanmar’s junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and the Tatmadaw (armed forces) as both continued to defy the groupings’ Five-Point Consensus (5PC).

The 5PC agreed upon by both sides on April 2021 – two months after the power grab – calls for the: immediate cessation of violence; holding dialogues with all key stakeholders; appointment of a special envoy to facilitate mediation; for the envoy to visit and meet with stakeholders in Myanmar; and to allow ASEAN to provide humanitarian assistance to people in Myanmar.

A professor at the National War College in Washington and an adjunct at Georgetown University, Dr Zachary Abuza, said Anwar is well-meaning and frustrated with the situation in Myanmar – in particular, the way that State Administration Council (SAC) has basically refused to implement the 5PC.

Abuza added ASEAN’s position on Myanmar has been inadequate due to its two principles – decision-making by consensus, and non-interference.

“There's much more the bloc needs to do to resolve this crisis. However, ASEAN’s decision-making by consensus and the principle of non-interference is going to go nowhere when there are many governments in the region supporting the junta.

“ASEAN’s non-interference principle is just a ‘code to allow countries to do nothing’ to resolve the crisis. 

“Also, I don’t think constructive engagement with the military government is at all possible. They are not negotiating in good faith; their goal is total power (to) crush the opposition,” Abuza said. 

“Myanmar will never fulfil the 5PC. Why should ASEAN deal with them (junta)?

“I think the best thing that ASEAN could do is to meet with the NUG on a more regular basis. I know they won’t recognise the NUG as the lawful government, but simply meeting with them (NUG) would drive the generals crazy,” he said.

Meanwhile, Professor and Director of Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, said Anwar’s role could be crucial in reinforcing Indonesia’s ASEAN Chairmanship this year.

“Only hardball diplomacy and leverage would work against Myanmar’s military.

“All options must be put on the table, including Myanmar’s membership downgrade and regional isolation,” he told Bernama.

At the same time, Thitinan concurred with Abuza that ASEAN should engage with the NUG as a way of leveraging against the Tatmadaw.

Meanwhile, Lina Alexandra, the head of the Department of International Relations at the Centre of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta, believes that the 5PC deal can be salvaged.

She said ASEAN can work with its Dialogue Partners to bring progress in the implementation of 5PC with a clear roadmap to improve the situation in Myanmar.

“Definitely, ASEAN is not having control on what these countries would like to do regarding their own national interests, but I think it is very clear that these Dialogue Partners want to see some peace and stability, especially at their borders,” she said.

Feb 1, 2023, marked two years since the military coup. It is reported that nearly 3,000 were killed and 17,000 were detained, while more than 1.5 million have been displaced, thus far. While Myanmar sees the coup and the fallout within as its internal affairs, geopolitical observers and analysts view the woes relating to Myanmar as a test of ASEAN’s credibility and unity.

-- BERNAMA