ASEAN, China Can No Longer Delay South China Sea COC, Experts Say

By Linda Khoo

KUALA LUMPUR, May 13 (Bernama) -- Amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea and rising fears of a major power confrontation, maritime experts say ASEAN and China can no longer afford delays in concluding a substantive Code of Conduct (COC) to prevent disputes from spiralling into open conflict and destabilising the region.

Maritime analyst and scholar Nazery Khalid said the South China Sea remains a lifeline to ASEAN economies, serving as a vital route for regional trade, imported energy flows and marine resources.

“Rising tensions in the South China Sea, coupled with the potential involvement of major powers, have made the need for ASEAN and China to conclude a substantive COC more critical than ever.

“It is therefore imperative that ASEAN and China accelerate the COC negotiations to provide a safety net for them to align their claims with international law and avoid confrontation in the South China Sea,” he told Bernama.

He said ASEAN aimed to conclude a substantive and effective COC by the end of 2026, with legally binding mechanisms to enhance confidence-building and peacefully manage disputes in the South China Sea.

Since early this year, ASEAN and China have stepped up efforts to finalise the long-delayed COC, including through monthly face-to-face technical meetings, as both sides push to meet the 2026 target after years of slow progress.

However, Nazery said the path towards a final agreement remains challenging, noting that little substantive progress has been made since the signing of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) in 2002.

The maritime analyst said national interests, domestic political pressures, shifting strategic priorities and geopolitical alignments continued to hinder progress, warning that failure to conclude a substantive and binding agreement could undermine regional trade, economic prosperity and security.

On regional stability, he said overlapping territorial claims and rising military activity in the disputed waters had heightened tensions, drawing greater involvement from external powers.

“Although commercial shipping flows in the South China Sea remain largely unaffected, the situation could escalate if left unchecked and lead to a full-blown naval conflict due to the absence of a binding code of conduct regulating the actions of claimant states,” he said.

Sharing similar views, Professor of Strategic Studies at the National Defence University of Malaysia, Professor Dr Adam Leong Kok Wey, said it was timely for ASEAN and China to conclude the COC amid rising geopolitical tensions and the increasingly unconstrained use of military force by major powers.

He acknowledged that negotiations still faced “teething issues”, but stressed that ASEAN and China should demonstrate to the international community that diplomacy remains an effective mechanism for managing regional security challenges.

He proposed an initial “provisional” COC agreement while members continue refining outstanding details over the next few years.

“This would demonstrate the seriousness and credibility of ASEAN and China in managing regional issues in their own way without interference from other powers,” he told Bernama.

Leong said the effectiveness of the COC would ultimately depend on whether it was legally binding and backed by enforceable mechanisms.

However, he said even a provisional agreement could still serve as an important confidence-building measure and a “living document” that would be continuously updated over time.

At the recently concluded 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu, the Philippines, ASEAN leaders welcomed progress in the ongoing COC negotiations and reaffirmed the importance of concluding an effective and substantive agreement in line with international law, including the 1982 UNCLOS.

In the chair’s statement, the leaders also stressed the need to maintain an environment conducive to negotiations and welcomed practical measures aimed at reducing tensions, minimising miscalculation and strengthening confidence-building efforts in the disputed waters.

As ASEAN Chair this year, the Philippines has proposed establishing an ASEAN Maritime Centre to support ASEAN-led mechanisms on maritime-related issues and promote cross-sectoral cooperation among member states while avoiding duplication of efforts.

On the proposal, Leong described the initiative as a positive step towards strengthening regional maritime cooperation and knowledge-sharing.

He said the centre could enhance collaboration not only in maritime security but also in areas such as the blue economy and maritime environmental protection, while serving as another platform to deepen ASEAN cooperation.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the initiative was not directed against any country, but aimed at safeguarding freedom of navigation and ensuring peaceful navigation in the South China Sea.

-- BERNAMA