Ambank Group Projects Malaysia’s GDP Growth At 5.1 Pct in 2024, Driven By Domestic Expansion

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 12 (Bernama) -- AmBank Group anticipates Malaysia's full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth to reach 5.1 per cent in 2024, slightly above the previous estimate.

This growth is expected to be driven by domestic expansion and a moderating inflation environment that was observed in the fourth quarter of last year (4Q 2024), it said in a note today.

The bank also views the overnight policy rate (OPR) at last year’s level as neutral, aligning with Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) assessment, which supports economic growth.

This is reflected via consumer spending amid an uptick in credit card disbursement (4Q2024: 6.3 per cent versus 3Q2024: 5.7 per cent) during the quarter.

“With the positive performance in the labour market, as the unemployment rate hits a decade-low of 3.1 per cent as of December 2024, we posit that the OPR will remain steady at 3.00 per cent in the near term,” the group said.

On the supply side, the group said the services sector led the growth in the quarter, with a projected 5.5 per cent year-on-year increase, supported by the tourism sector as Malaysia recorded over 25 million international tourists in 2024 (2023: 20.1 million).

“Additionally, we foresee that the construction sector will continue its double-digit growth during the quarter (4Q2024: 19.8 per cent versus 3Q2024:19.9 per cent), thanks to data centre development, which could be one of the factors contributing to the stronger performance in 4Q2024,” it said.

For 2025, it projects Malaysia’s full-year GDP growth at 4.6 per cent, with risks tilted to the downside due to external factors such as global economic uncertainties.

-- BERNAMA