IEA Expects Drop In 2026 Global Oil Output Of 1.54Mln Bpd Instead Of Increase - Report

MOSCOW, April 14 (Bernama-Sputnik/RIA Novosti) -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a decrease in global oil production of 1.54 million barrels per day to 104.67 million barrels per day instead of an increase in 2026, according to its fresh report on Tuesday, reported Sputnik/RIA Novosti.

According to the March report, the agency expected the 2026 production to increase by 1.11 million barrels per day to 107.23 million barrels per day.

The IEA also expects oil refining to decrease by 1 million barrels per day to 82.9 million barrels per day in 2026 due to the situation in West Asia.

"In April, Middle East and feedstock-constrained refineries in Asia have cut runs by around 6 mb/d, to 77.2 mb/d.

“Global crude runs are now expected to decline by 1 mb/d on average in 2026, to 82.9 mb/d. Refining margins temporarily surged as middle distillate cracks reached all-time highs," the report read.

The Eight OPEC+ countries with voluntary restrictions decreased oil production in March by 8.01 million barrels per day to 25.02 million barrels, and produced 7.5 million barrels per day below the quota level, it added.

The total oil production of Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Algeria, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Oman in March amounted to 25.02 million barrels per day against 33.03 million barrels in February.

At the same time, according to the IEA, taking into account the current quotas, remaining voluntary restrictions and compensation schedules, the target level for eight countries was 32.52 million barrels.

"OPEC+ crude supply plunged by 8.1 mb/d in March to 35.2 mb/d as OPEC Gulf crude production, excluding Qatar, declined by a sharp 8.9 mb/d due to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing attacks on oil infrastructure," the report said.

The IEA has downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 80,000 barrels per day and now expects demand at 104.259 million barrels per day, the organisation said in its fresh report on Tuesday.

"The Iran war has thoroughly upended the global outlook for oil consumption, with worldwide demand now expected to move into contraction instead of growth. Demand is forecast to decline by 80 kb/d y-o-y in 2026," the report read.

According to the updated data, demand is expected to decrease by 80,000 barrels per day this year to 104.259 million barrels per day.

--BERNAMA-SPUTNIK/RIA NOVOSTI