Reform UK Surge Signals Fragmented British Political Landscape 

By Wan Muhammad Aslah Wan Razali

KUALA LUMPUR, May 8 (Bernama) -- Britain’s local and devolved elections have highlighted mounting pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the Labour Party, with analysts pointing to the growing influence of Reform UK and increasing fragmentation in British politics.

University of Nottingham Malaysia, Associate Professor Dr Benjamin Barton, said Labour was expected to lose a significant number of councillor seats, although not necessarily control of councils due to the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system.

“The biggest winners are being predicted in England as being Reform, so that’s Nigel Farage’s party. The Greens as well, with Zack Polanski helping them to rise electorally speaking, and the Lib Dems in certain seats,” he said during an online interview on Bernama TV’s The World, on Friday.

Barton said Reform UK was making gains beyond its traditional support base in industrial and rural constituencies, increasingly expanding into urban areas that had historically backed Labour and the Conservatives. 

He added that the party’s growing popularity could reshape future electoral contests in Britain.

Barton noted that Starmer’s government was facing challenges linked to the rising cost of living, inflation, and difficulties in managing Britain’s relationships with both the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). 

He also highlighted that Labour had inherited political instability following years of leadership changes under the Conservatives.

Commenting on Scotland and Wales, Barton, who is also the University's School of Politics, History and International Relations head, said nationalist parties were expected to perform strongly, particularly Plaid Cymru in Wales and the Scottish National Party in Scotland. 

However, he said the trend should not necessarily be interpreted as worsening relations among the nations within the United Kingdom.

“I don’t think it will be a major change. Perhaps in Wales, Wales may seek greater devolutionary powers similar to what Scotland has gained over the years from London,” he said.

Barton also warned that Labour could face mounting pressure ahead of the next general election as Reform UK continued building support among former Conservative voters, particularly on issues such as immigration and relations with Brussels.

Meanwhile, Senior Fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, Dr Oh Ei Sun, said for Labour, the local elections were ‘almost akin to a midterm election in the US’.

He said voters had expected Labour to improve the economy and repair Britain’s political system following its landslide victory in 2024, but economic stagnation and shortcomings in public service delivery had contributed to growing dissatisfaction.

“The British economy remains, shall we say, quite stagnant,” he said, pointing to issues such as housing shortages, congested public transport, and long waiting times for the UK’s National Health Service (NHS).

Oh said there were already murmurs within Labour questioning Starmer’s leadership as the party struggled to contain growing support for Reform UK, particularly in traditionally Labour constituencies in northern and central England.

He said Labour was being squeezed politically from both sides, with Reform UK attracting voters concerned about immigration while the Green Party appealed to progressive voters in urban constituencies such as London.

Despite gains by smaller parties, Oh noted that Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system would likely still allow Labour and the Conservatives to retain a substantial number of seats, although parties such as Reform UK, the Greens, the Scottish National Party (SNP), and Plaid Cymru were increasingly making their presence felt.

He added that Britain’s traditionally class-based political system was becoming increasingly issue-driven, with voters focusing more on economic performance, immigration, and public services.

“As long as the British electoral mood is shifting more towards this sort of issue-driven trend, I think in the upcoming general election, indeed, you will see a much more fragmented British political landscape,” he added.

-- BERNAMA