By Wan Muhammad Aslah Wan Razali
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 17 (Bernama) -- The durability of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, set to take effect on Sunday, remains uncertain as experts express scepticism about its sustainability.
Dr Nor Aishah Hanifa, a defence expert from Universiti Pertahanan Nasional Malaysia (UPNM), said that the numerous broken ceasefires in this conflict suggest a likelihood of violations.
“We can’t determine whether the ceasefire can hold as planned, as it depends on the actions of both sides and their commitment to fulfilling agreed-upon conditions. Many factors play a role in sustaining the ceasefire, and honouring the deal is crucial,” she told Bernama.
Nor Aishah noted that the timing of the ceasefire coincides with mounting pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to secure the release of hostages as his political future hinges on it.
“Even a single act of violence, such as an explosion or a gunshot, could jeopardise the ceasefire and reignite the war,” she warned, adding that strict adherence to all ceasefire conditions by both sides is critical.
She further highlighted the importance of understanding the objectives of both Hamas and Israel.
“Is Hamas seeking a temporary reprieve or genuinely pursuing peace? Meanwhile, Israel remains determined to eliminate Hamas,” she said.
Nor Aishah also questioned the timing of the ceasefire about the arrival of President-elected Donald Trump, who has consistently prioritised Israel's security.
“The question is whether both parties fully understand the ceasefire’s terms and whether it will lead to peace. Again, what kind of peace? Israel’s formula, America’s formula, or Hamas’s formula?” she remarked.
She noted that the current mechanism to sustain the ceasefire is being led by the United Nations (UN) and its peacekeeping operations, while the United States (US) plays a key role in restraining Israel.
However, she suggested that Qatar should play a similar role to Hamas by issuing an ultimatum.
“Holding an ultimatum is critical to maintaining the ceasefire. The ultimatum should emphasise that the ceasefire is a step toward peace and the reconstruction of Gaza.
“Otherwise, it should include the withdrawal of all aid. A carrot-and-stick policy must be applied,” she explained.
Meanwhile, the International Institute of Advanced Islamic Studies (IAIS) Deputy Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Dr Ahmad Badri Abdullah, stressed that a genuine commitment to peace is essential, as any perception of strategic advantage in resuming hostilities could jeopardise the agreement.
He pointed out that the responsibility for ensuring the ceasefire’s longevity has historically fallen on Israel, whose actions have at times undermined agreements.
“For instance, the assassination of Hamas leader and chief negotiator Ismail Haniyeh is a notable example of actions that have disrupted peace efforts.
“Even during the most recent negotiations, a last-minute attempt by Netanyahu to demand the release of Israeli soldier hostages instead of women and the elderly threatened to derail the agreement,” he said.
Ahmad Badri highlighted the importance of international pressure and diplomatic engagement in reinforcing adherence to ceasefire terms.
“Sustained global attention and mediation can help ensure that both parties honour their commitments,” he said.
He also noted that grassroots support among citizens for peace initiatives could create an environment conducive to lasting agreements.
“Israeli citizens have largely shown support for the ceasefire, reflecting a growing desire for an end to violence and its toll on daily life,” he added.
However, Ahmad Badri cautioned that this ceasefire fits into a recurring pattern of temporary agreements that fail to address the root causes of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“Without meaningful negotiations to end the occupation of Palestine and hold Israel accountable for alleged genocide, war crimes, and ethnic cleansing, the ceasefire risks being just another brief pause in the ongoing cycle of violence and suffering,” he said.
He explained that economically and ideologically, Israel has little incentive to end the conflict, as its defence industry thrives on continuous demand for arms and military technology.
This economic advantage, coupled with ideological motivations, reinforces the status quo, he said.
While acknowledging the ceasefire as a temporary measure, Ahmad Badri said it has the potential to signify a broader shift in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict under the right circumstances.
“Sustained dialogue and meaningful negotiations in the aftermath of the ceasefire could provide a foundation for longer-term solutions.
“Regional dynamics, including evolving alliances or external pressures, might also nudge both parties toward more permanent resolutions,” he explained.
However, achieving such a shift, according to Ahmad Badri, would require steadfast commitment from all stakeholders and a willingness to address the underlying issues fuelling the conflict.
-- BERNAMA
